Return Dynamics & Position Sizing
Position sizing is conventionally framed through risk tolerance. A complementary framing — drawn from compounding theory, the Kelly criterion, and recent leveraged ETF research — looks at the return process itself and how its dynamics shape the size that maximises geometric return.
The Turkish Lira: Depreciation, Carry, and the Iran War Shock
Turkey's lira has depreciated from 1.1 to above 44 per dollar since 2008 — the cumulative result of persistent inflation, structural current account deficits, and a credibility discount from the 2021–2023 policy reversal. The Iran war has now put the managed disinflation framework under simultaneous stress.
Priced for Peace
The comfortable disinflation of 2024–2025 has collided with three forces that do not resolve quickly — a structurally broken oil market, a constrained central bank, and a fiscal position that shifts incentives away from genuine price stability.
Tick Size Arbitrage Across Cryptocurrency Exchanges
We formalise a class of microstructure arbitrage strategies that exploit heterogeneous tick sizes across cryptocurrency exchanges, derive profitability conditions, and present a worked example using APEUSDT across five exchanges.
Implied Options Probabilities vs Polymarket
We pull the full Deribit BTC option chain, interpolate an IV surface, compute first-passage-time hitting probabilities, and compare them to Polymarket contract prices.